التنمية المستدامة للإنتاج- الجزء الثالث

Poultry Meat

لحوم الدواجن:الأسواق العالمية

World poultry meat output is estimated at 120.5 million in 2017 up 1.1 percent from 2016. Outputs expanded in almost all major poultry producing

regions despite frequent outbreaks of

the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Africa, Asia and Europe.

Much of expanded output in 2017 came from the United States (+2.4%), the Russian Federation (+7.2%), Brazil, (+1.9%), Turkey (+12.5%), India (+4.8%), Thailand (+6.7%), Mexico (+3 (%٨.and the EU (+0.8%).

Between 2010 and 2017, world poultry meat production has increased by 21.3 million tonnes, but over the years the rate of growth has been decelerating. In the United States ,poultry meat output is estimated at 22 million tonnes, up 2.4 percent from 2016, supported by strong domestic and international demand, genetic improvements that favour producing larger birds, and streamlined processing. In the EU ,output was

constrained by HPAI outbreaks, limiting

production growth to 0.8 percent as against 4 percent 3 years ago. In the Russian Federation, output expanded by over 7 percent, buoyed by high domestic demand, as consumers substituted poultry for other expensive meat products; and improvements in production facilities. In contrast , China was an exception, where the output contracted by an estimated 5.6 percent, shedding over 1 million tonnes from its output. Several factors contributed to the contraction: HPAI outbreaks in the early months in 2017 that led to banning the live-bird market operations and transportation; government’s continued policy to limit the importation of breeding stock; the continued reduction of output of small-scale farms as they left the sector due to their inability to adjust to the reforms. In many countries, HPAI outbreaks badly affected output, especially early in 2017, but recovered in the following months, leading to output stability.

World poultry meat exports reached 13 million tonnes in 2017 up 2.8

percent from 2016.

While

Brazil,

the

United States, the EU

and Thailand continued

to be the leading

poultry meat exporters,

most of the increase in

shipments in 2017

originated in the United States (+3.1%), Turkey (+33.6%), Thailand

٣٤

(+10%), China (+15%), the Russian Federation (+40.7%) and the EU (+2.5%). The United States benefitted from its HPAI-free status from August 2017 and strong import demand from Mexico, China, Cuba, Canada and Angola. Thailand continued to expand its poultry meat exports, driven by demand for value-added ready-to-eat products in world markets, especially in Japan. Despite facing import bans by key trading partners in response to HPAI outbreaks ,EU poultry exports expanded,

showing the resilience of the sector,

especially its capacity to contain the spread and to identify new markets. In contrast ,Brazil’s exports slipped by 2 percent in 2017 to 4.3 million tonnes but continued to be the world’s largest poultry meat exporter. On poultry meat imports, most significant reductions were reported by China (-9.8%)

and Saudi Arabia (-12.1%) but compensated by increased imports by Japan (+9.5%), Angola (+29%), Ghana (+55.7%, Cuba (+19%) and Iraq (+8.4%).

Poultry meat production: World total and in selected countries (٢١) جدول

(‘000 tonnes, Carcass weight equivalent)

World

United States

China

EU

Brazil

Russian Fed.

ndia

Mexico

Japan

2015

2016

2017 prelim

116342

21017

17895

13925

13636

4088

3292

3002

2132

119239

21483

18710

14514

13391

4141

3426

3116

2345

120516

21998

17665

14630

13645

4440

3591

3234

2359

Change

2017 over

2016 (%)

1.1

2.4

-5.6

0.8

1.9

7.2

4.8

3.8

0.6

Poultry meat imports: World total and in selected countries (٢٢) جدول

(‘000 tonnes, Carcass weight equivalent)

World

China

Japan

Mexico

Saudi Arabia

EU

Viet Nam

South Africa

Iraq

UAE

Cuba

2015

2016

2017 prelim

12261

1392

1134

928

971

715

793

479

388

428

229

12360

1583

1179

959

903

738

584

560

437

435

238

12381

1427

1291

978

794

726

600

557

473

432

284

٣٥

Change

2017 over

2016 (%)

0.2

-9.8

9.5

2.0

-12.1

-1.7

2.7

-0.5

8.4

-0.8

19.2

Poultry meat exports: World total and in selected countries (٢٣) جدول

(‘000 tonnes, Carcass weight equivalent)

World

Brazil

United States

EU

Thailand

Turkey

China

Ukraine

2015

2016

2017 prelim

12189

4274

3491

1387

874

346

402

164

12739

4364

3654

1500

955

327

371

244

13091

4284

3769

1537

1051

437

426

274

٣٦

Change

2017 over

2016 (%)

2.8

-1.8

3.1

2.5

10.0

33.6

15.0

12.3

الأسواق العالمية :الألبان ومنتجاتها Dairy Market Review

)*(

أسواق الألبان :

دأت الأسعار الدولية للألبان تستعيد عافيتها في منتصف عام ،٢٠١٢لتكسر انخفاض الأسعار ويعزى ذلك التغيير في نزعة الأسعار إلى محدودية

المستمر الذي ميز الاثني عشر شه ار السابقة ،

المتوقع أن يظل الفائض في حالة توازن حرج حتى نهاية العام

العرض في السوق العالمية .وكان من

على الأقل ،لأن الناتج من نصف الكرة الشمالي يميل حاليا للانخفاض الموسمي ولا يتوقع إلا زيادة محدودة خلال السنة الإنتاجية الجديدة في نصف الكرة الجنوبي ،ومن المرجح أن ترتفع الأسعار أكثر



ويتوقع أن يزيد الإنتاج

بسبب عدم وجود نمو ملحوظ في إنتاج الألبان في الدول

المصدرة الرئيسية .

العالمي من الألبان في ٢٠١٢بنسبة ،%٣.٠ليصل إلى ٧٦٠مليون طن – وهو معدل أعلى من وينتظر أن يكون لآسيا النصيب الأكبر من هذه الزيادة ،مع زيادة في

المتوسط في السنوات الأخيرة ،

أوقيانوسيا وأمريكا الجنوبية أيضا .أما فيما يتعلق بالتجارة الدولية في منتجات الألبان ،فيتوقع أن يتواصل نموها في ٢٠١٢مع ثبات أحجام الطلب ،ليصل إجمالي الصادرات حسبما هو متوقع إلى ٥٢.٩مليون طن معادل للحليب السائل ،بزيادة تعادل %٤.٦عن ،٢٠١١وسيكون لآسيا الحصة

الأكبر في زيادة الطلب ،تليها أفريقيا.

جدول ) (١١الأسواق العالمية للألبان

٢٠١٠

معادل للحليب

الميزان العالمي :

الإنتاج الإجمالي للألبان

إجمالي التجارة

مؤشرات العرض والطلب:

الإستهلاك الغذائي للفرد:

العالم )كغ/سنة(

البلدان المتقدمة )كغ/سنة(

البلدان النامية )كغ/سنة(

نصيب التجارة من الإنتاج )(%

مؤشر أسعار الألبان لمنظمة الأغذية والزراعة

)(١٠٠=٢٠٠٤-٢٠٠٢

٢٠١١

التقديري

٢٠١٢

المتوقع

مليون طن

تغير ٢٠١٢

عن ٢٠١١

%

٧٢٢.٩

٤٧.٨

٧٣٧.٩

٥٠.٥

٧٥٩.٦

٥٢.٩

٣.٠

٤.٦

١٠٤.٦

٢٣٤.١

٦٩.٤

٦.٦

٢٠١٠

١٠٥.٦

٢٣٤.٩

٧٠.٨

٦.٨

٢٠١١

١٠٧.٥

٢٣٨.١

٧٢.٧

٧.٠

٢٠١٢

)يناير/كانون

الثاني-

إبريل/نيسان(

٢٠٠

٢٢١

١٨٧

١.٨

١.٤

٢.٨

١.٦

تغير )يناير/كانون

الثاني – إبريل/نيسان(

٢٠١٢عن

)يناير/كانون الثاني –

إبريل/نيسان(%٢٠١١

١٦.٦-

Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations. April 2018.

٣٧

)*(

(١٠٠=٢٠٠٤-٢٠٠٢) ( مؤشر منظمة الأغذية والزراعة للأسعار العالمية للألبان١١) شكل

Milk production trends in 2017

World milk output reached 811 million tonnes in 2017, 1.4 percent higher than in 2016. Across geographic regions, milk output expanded in Asia, the Americas and Europe; stagnated in Africa; and declined in Oceania.

In Africa, milk output was estimated at 45.7 million tonnes, almost unchanged from 2016, with higher outputs in South Africa, Algeria and Tunisia largely offset by lower production in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia and

Tanzania.

In Asia, milk output rose by 1.9 percent, principally contributed by India and Pakistan, compensating for declines in China and Turkey. India’s output expansion was mainly a result of rising numbers of dairy animals, as yields continued to rise slowly reflecting the limited availability of quality feed and fodder, estimated at 10 percent of the national requirement.

China’s milk output declined for a second successive year, as expansions in the large, organized sector were inadequate to compensate for reductions in

the smallholder sector.

Smallholder dairy farmers who could not cope with the costs of relocating away from urban centers and areas designated as environmentally sensitive, as required by the new environmental regulations left the sector altogether.

In Turkey, milk output fell for a second year in a row, owing to a decline in

dairy herd, a process that began in 2014.

٣٨

Asia. The moderate increases in cheese and WMP prices were underpinned by continued rise in import demand from Asia. Finally, large SMP stocks held by the EU resulted in low SMP international prices.

Selected international prices for milk products and (٢٤) جدول

dairy price index

Butter1

Skin Milk

Powder2

Whole Milk

Powder3

Cheddar

Cheese4

FAO Meat

Price Index

(2002-2004

=100)

4270

4876

3547

4484

4010

3212

3350

5573

3081

3556

3119

4293

3647

2113

1983

2025

3514

4018

3358

4745

3868

2509

2457

3179

4010

4310

3821

4402

4456

3340

3094

3848

207

230

194

243

224

160

154

202

4479

4409

4730

4994

5205

5938

6438

6724

6950

6306

5732

4969

2337

2332

2121

1935

2004

2156

2085

2031

1951

1856

1763

1723

3234

3249

3063

2990

3188

3273

3296

3417

3372

3198

2985

2886

3756

3825

3688

3438

3619

3900

4031

4008

4151

4125

4044

3594

193

194

190

184

193

209

217

220

224

215

204

184

International Prices (US$ per tone)

PERIOD

Annual

(January/December)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Monthly

2017-January

2017-February

2017-March

2017-April

2017-May

2017-June

2017-July

2017-August

2017-September

2017-October

2017-November

2017-December

1 Butter, 82% butterfat, f.o.b. Oceania and EU; averaged indicative traded prices 2 Skim Milk Powder, 1.25% butterfat, f.o.b. Oceania and EU, averaged indicative traded prices 3 Whole Milk Powder, 26% butterfat, f.o.b. Oceania and EU, averaged indicative traded prices 4 Cheddar Cheese, 39% max. moisture, f.o.b. Oceania, indicative traded prices Note: The FAO Dairy Price Index is derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of

representative internationally-traded

dairy products

Sources: FAO for indices. Product prices: Mid-point of price ranges reported by Dairy Market News

(USDA)

٤٣