صفحة 51 الصفحة في PDF
Production: total milk (٢٥) جدول
thousand tones
2015
2016
2017 prelim
World
801 316
799 097
810 652
India1
155 693
159 396
165 612
EU
162 900
163 000
165 400
United States
94 619
96 343
97 735
China
42 666
41 952
41 289
Pakistan
41 592
39 652
40 167
Brazil
34 860
33 878
35 233
Russian Fed.
30 791
30 752
30 990
New Zealand2
21 909
21 568
21 341
1/ Dairy years starting April of the year stated (production only).
2/ Dairy years ending May of the year stated (production only).
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
1.4
3.9
1.5
1.4
-1.6
1.3
4.0
0.8
-1.1
Imports: total milk (٢٦) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
World
China
Russian Fed.
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Indonesia
UAE
Japan
2015
2016
2017 prelim
69 957
10 725
3 944
3 328
3 477
2 985
2 548
2 785
2 011
70 571
12 026
4 288
3 694
3 064
2 903
2 839
2 116
1 909
71 767
13 302
4 104
3 954
2 900
2 885
2 737
2 488
2 173
٤٤
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
1.7
10.6
-4.3
7.0
-5.4
-0.6
-3.6
17.6
13.8
صفحة 52 الصفحة في PDF
Exports: total milk (٢٧) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
World
EU
New Zealand
United States
Belarus
Australia
Saudi Arabia
2015
2016
2017 prelim
70 048
18 776
19 222
9 347
3 901
3 442
1 399
70 682
18 487
19 374
9 973
3 936
3 326
1 447
71 581
20 125
18 550
10 469
3 709
3 053
1 445
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
1.3
8.9
-4.3
5.0
-5.8
-8.2
-0.2
Imports: butter (٢٨) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
World
China
Russian Fed.
Saudi Arabia
United States
Mexico
Iran Isl. Rep
2015
2016
2017 prelim
849
106
97
52
41
35
47
937
117
105
55
48
52
51
829
126
94
45
44
39
36
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
-11.6
8.2
-10.6
-18.2
-7.3
-24.7
-28.0
Exports: butter (٢٩) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
World
New Zealand
EU
Belarus
United States
Ukraine
2015
2016
2017 prelim
945
500
178
88
26
12
962
503
208
84
29
12
852
436
172
79
34
30
٤٥
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
-11.4
-13.3
-17.4
-5.8
18.2
152.6
صفحة 53 الصفحة في PDF
Imports: cheese (٣٠) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
World
Japan
Russian Fed.
United States
Saudi Arabia
China
Mexico
Korea Rep. Of
2015
2016
2017 prelim
2 291
249
209
200
162
121
116
112
2 399
258
222
205
158
146
126
110
2 431
273
203
183
164
158
122
125
Exports: cheese (٣١) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
2015
2016
2017 prelim
World
EU
New Zealand
United States
Belarus
Australia
Saudi Arabia
2 340
719
327
318
178
171
126
2 477
800
355
289
204
167
131
2 540
830
343
343
189
172
129
Imports: smp (٣٢) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
2015
2016
2017 prelim
World
Mexico
China
Algeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Malaysia
2 126
259
234
136
145
101
147
2 177
286
216
119
159
185
135
٤٦
2 260
331
278
170
147
140
120
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
1.3
5.9
-8.5
-10.4
3.8
8.3
-3.6
14.0
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
2.5
3.7
-3.3
18.5
-7.5
2.9
-1.5
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
3.8
15.8
28.8
42.4
-7.7
-24.3
-10.8
صفحة 54 الصفحة في PDF
EXPORTS: SMP (٣٣) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
2015
2016
2017 prelim
World
EU
United States
New Zealand
Australia
Belarus
2 219
28 692
560
411
201
111
2 186
574
593
444
163
111
2 380
779
608
403
158
109
IMPORTS: WMP (٣٤) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
2015
2016
2017 prelim
World
China
Algeria
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Sri Lanka
Brazil
2 221
456
224
160
133
72
59
2 350
536
224
128
126
85
126
2 238
590
175
145
103
85
73
EXPORTS: WMP (٣٥) جدول
thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent)
2015
2016
2017 prelim
World
New Zealand
EU
Uruguay
Mexico
Argentina
2 573
1 380
400
96
11
138
2 471
1 344
381
126
20
110
٤٧
2 433
1 346
393
109
77
71
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
8.9
35.6
2.6
-9.3
-3.1
-1.7
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
-4.8
9.9
-22.0
13.2
-18.3
0.0
-42.2
Change
2017 over
2016 (%)
-1.5
0.2
3.1
-14.2
283.9
-35.3
صفحة 55 الصفحة في PDF
:(*) World Markets and Trade الأسواق العالمية : Livestock and Poultry حيوانات المزرعة والدواجن Pork and Chicken Meat Trade Strengthen, Beef Trade Slackens in
2019
•Beef exports are forecast flat at 10.6 million tons, as shipments from Brazil, Argentina, and the United States offset declines by Australia and India. Growing global beef demand will provide opportunities for major exporters to increase market share in key markets.
•Pork exports are forecast 3 percent higher, buoyed by strong demand in Asia and Latin America. Pork prices remain competitive, bolstering shipments to most markets. The European Union will remain the top
exporter, followed by the United States.
•Chicken meat exports are forecast a robust 4 percent higher to a new record. Shipments by major traders are fueled largely by rising consumption in developing markets, such as the Philippines, Angola, Cuba, and Ghana. Brazil’s ability to adapt to new Saudi Arabian market
(*)
Source: United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service 11
October, 2018.
٤٨
صفحة 56 الصفحة في PDF
conditions (non-stun slaughter) bolsters export recovery, albeit volumes
will remain below historical highs.
: Beef and Veal Beef and Veal اللحم البقري والبتلو Global production is forecast to grow slightly (1 percent) in 2019 to 63.6 million tons, primarily from gains in Brazil, the United States, and Argentina. Brazil’s expansion is driven by steady domestic demand and solid export growth to key Asian markets. Argentina’s growth is driven by rising weights in response to stronger export demand for heavier animals.
Australia’s persistent hot and dry weather conditions have led to deteriorating pasture conditions, high grain prices, and low water supplies, forcing more cattle into feedlots. With lower expected cattle numbers at the start of 2019 beef production is forecast lower. To the extent herd rebuilding occurs in 2019 fewer animals may be available for slaughter.
Global exports in 2019 are forecast flat at 10.6 million tons as shipments from Brazil, Argentina, and the United States will offset declines by Australia and India. Australia’s herd rebuilding efforts will become its priority in 2019 potentially providing opportunities for major exporters to increase market share on growing global beef demand. China and Hong Kong’s ever-rising beef demand will remain strong as stagnant domestic production and looming disease uncertainties in competing meat
proteins fuel consumption.
U.S. production and exports :Production is forecast up 4 percent in 2019 to a record 12.7 million tons reflecting recent calf crop increases. Exports are forecast up 3 percent to a record 1.5 million tons, almost 12 percent of production. Ample supplies, competitive prices, and Australia’s waning production will spur U.S. shipments to key markets such as Japan, South
Korea, Mexico, and Canada.
٤٩
صفحة 57 الصفحة في PDF
Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary (٣٦) جدول
(1Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 Oct.
9,723
7,443
6,890
4,100
2,700
2,595
1,827
1,685
1,245
1,375
10.156
49.739
11.075
60.814
9,425
7,684
6,700
4,100
2,720
2,547
1,850
1,710
1,423
1,355
9.379
48.893
10.817
59.710
9,284
7,880
7,000
4,200
2,650
2,125
1,879
1,750
1,484
1,335
9.384
48.971
11.507
60.478
9,550
7,863
7,260
4,250
2,840
2,149
1,925
1,780
1,399
1,336
9.329
49.681
11.943
61.624
9,900
7,915
7,325
4,300
2,950
2,300
1,960
1,800
1,400
1,340
9.402
50.592
12.286
62.878
10,200
7,800
7,400
4,330
3,000
2,180
2,000
1,820
1,400
1,355
9.413
50898
12.725
63.623
7,277
7,896
7,514
2,018
2,503
1,839
2,297
1,627
1,247
7,339
7,781
7,742
2,294
2,534
1,797
1,967
1,636
1,455
7,759
7,652
7,898
2,436
2,434
1,809
1,849
1,685
1,495
8,227
7,750
7,832
2,401
2,547
1,841
1,840
1,722
1,424
8,530
7,850
7,935
2,635
2,450
1,865
1,823
1,741
1,489
8,705
8,045
7,820
2,705
2,425
1,890
1,810
1,761
1,469
Item
Production
Brazil
European Union
China
India
Argentina
Australia
Mexico
Pakistan
Turkey
Russia
Others
Total Foreign
United States
Total
Total Dom. Consumption
China
Brazil
European Union
India
Argentina
Mexico
Russia
Pakistan
Turkey
٥٠
صفحة 58 الصفحة في PDF
Item
Production
Japan
Others
Total Foreign
United States
Total
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 Oct.
1,225
12,082
47.525
11.241
58.766
1,186
10,806
46.537
11.275
57.812
1,215
10,848
47.080
11.676
58.756
1,277
10,761
47.622
12.052
59.674
1,316
10,884
48.518
12.206
60.724
1,320
11,127
48.077
12.657
61.734
Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). From 2015,
the following
countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan.
The notation of a
month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Beef and Veal Trade - Selected Countries Summary (٣٧) جدول (1.000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
Total Imports
China
Japan
Hong Kong
Korea, South
Russia
European Union
Egypt
Chile
Canada
Mexico
Others
Total Foreign
United States
Total
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 Oct.
417
739
646
392
932
372
270
241
272
206
2,085
6.572
1.337
7.909
663
707
339
414
622
363
360
245
269
175
1,969
6.126
1.528
7.654
812
719
453
513
524
368
340
298
243
188
1,880
6.338
1.366
7.704
974
817
543
531
516
338
250
281
229
196
1,920
6.595
1.358
7.953
1,200
835
560
560
495
370
300
310
240
210
1,927
7.007
1.373
8.380
1,320
850
600
565
470
370
330
320
250
220
1,987
7.282
1.406
8.688
Total Exports
Brazil
India
Australia
New Zealand
Argentina
Canada
Uruguay
Paraguay
European Union
Mexico
Others
1,909
1,705
1,698
1,856
2,100
2,200
2,082
1,806
1,764
1,849
1,665
1,625
1,851
1,854
1,480
1,485
1,630
1,510
579
639
587
593
603
589
197
186
216
293
500
575
378
397
441
465
500
515
350
372
421
436
440
415
389
381
389
378
380
360
301
305
350
369
350
350
194
228
258
280
305
330
601
685
664
666
650
635
Total Foreign
8.831
8.558
8.268
8.670
9.123
9.104
United States
1.167
1.028
1.160
1.297
1.435
1.472
Total
9.998
9.586
9.428
9.967
10.558
10.575
Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). From
2015, the
following countries are excluded :Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and
Uzbekistan. The
notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
٥١
صفحة 59 الصفحة في PDF
Cattle Stocks - Selected Countries Summary (٣٨) جدول
(in 1,000 head)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 Oct.
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
India
300,600
301,100
302,600
303,600
305,000
306,500
Brazil
207,959
213,035
219,180
226,045
232,350
238,150
China
103,000
100,450
100,275
99,173
96,850
94,700
European Union
87,619
88,406
89,152
89,152
88,439
87,290
Argentina
51,545
51,545
52,565
53,515
53,715
54,215
Australia
29,291
29,102
27,413
24,971
25,500
25,200
Russia
19,564
19,152
18,879
18,638
18,564
18,500
Mexico
17,760
17,120
16,615
16,490
16,584
16,815
Turkey
14,533
14,345
14,128
14,222
14,500
14,990
Canada
12,050
11,640
11,610
11,535
11,575
11,520
Others
75,956
44,598
44,152
44,311
44,353
44,383
Total Foreign
919,877
890,493
896,569
901,652
907,430
912,263
United States
88,526
89,143
91,918
93,705
94,399
95,000
Total
1,008,403
979,636
988,487
995,357
1,001,829
1,007,263
Production (Calf Crop)
India
66,000
67,000
67,500
68,200
68,700
69,000
China
47,900
49,000
50,000
50,500
50,900
50,850
Brazil
49,600
48,220
48,250
48,735
49,500
50,700
European Union
29,280
29,900
30,100
29,180
29,000
28,900
Argentina
13,300
14,200
14,000
14,200
14,700
14,300
Australia
11,063
9,394
6,600
9,050
9,000
8,800
Mexico
6,750
6,850
7,100
7,485
7,700
7,900
Russia
6,670
6,620
6,600
6,705
6,700
6,760
New Zealand
5,440
5,040
5,060
4,728
4,850
4,766
Canada
4,496
4,198
4,272
4,358
4,340
4,340
Others
18,214
13,686
13,727
14,192
14,225
14,350
Total Foreign
258,713
254,108
253,209
257,333
259,615
260,666
United States
33,522
34,087
35,093
35,808
36,500
36,675
Total
292,235
288,195
288,302
293,141
296,115
297,341
Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela are excluded. The notation of a month
beneath a year
conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
٥٢
صفحة 60 الصفحة في PDF
Cattle Trade - Selected Countries Summary (٣٩) جدول
(in 1,000 head)
Total Imports
Turkey
Egypt
Canada
China
Russia
Others
Total Foreign
United States
Total
Total Exports
Mexico
European Union
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Others
Total Foreign
United States
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 Oct.
50
200
45
316
75
615
1,301
2,358
3,659
203
170
36
129
94
37
669
1,984
2,653
494
300
32
133
63
47
1,069
1,708
2,777
896
250
141
121
66
49
1,523
1,806
3,329
1,200
250
180
135
90
41
1,896
1,885
3,781
1,000
340
190
150
65
42
1,787
1,960
3,747
1,177
1,213
1,130
1,203
1,200
1,200
499
810
997
1,031
1,100
1,000
1,297
1,336
1,154
928
1,000
950
649
212
293
407
850
900
1,267
860
789
663
670
660
380
337
434
482
573
435
5,269
4,768
4,797
4,714
5,393
5,145
108
73
69
193
190
195
Total
5,377
4,841
4,866
4,907
5,583
5,340
Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela are excluded. The notation
of a month beneath a year
conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Marginal Growth Forecast for Canada Cattle and Beef Production
Tyler Cozzens, Agricultural Economist
HIGHLIGHTS:
• Canada’s beef production is forecast flat for 2019 following 3 percent growth in 2018 as available cattle supplies constrain expansion efforts.
• More than three-quarters of Canada’s beef exports are traditionally
destined for the U.S. market.
• Newly operational Harmony Beef plant in Calgary, AB seeks to supply growing Asian markets and EU under EU-Canada Comprehensive
Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).
٥٣